The AI IPO Race: OpenAI vs Anthropic Both Targeting Public Markets in 2026
Two of the most valuable private companies in the world are heading to public markets within weeks of each other.
OpenAI: confidential S-1 filed May 22, 2026. Target listing: September 2026. Target valuation: $852 billion to $1 trillion.
Anthropic: investment banks engaged, funding round in progress. Target listing: October 2026. Target valuation: $900 billion.
Why Both Companies Are Moving Now
The window for AI IPOs at trillion-dollar valuations is not permanent. Interest rates, market conditions, and — critically — competitive dynamics between the companies themselves all affect timing.
Both companies have revenue that now justifies going public. Anthropic is projecting $10.9 billion in Q2 revenue alone. OpenAI’s figures have not been made public, but the company’s last private fundraising valued it at $157 billion in late 2024 before multiple subsequent rounds pushed that figure significantly higher.
The Compute Problem
CNBC published a detailed analysis this week warning that cheap AI — the kind Google is now offering at $1.50 per million tokens — could undermine the billion-dollar valuations both companies are seeking.
The concern: if AI inference costs fall fast enough, the revenue models that justify $900 billion+ valuations become difficult to sustain. Both companies are spending enormous amounts on compute. Anthropic is paying SpaceX $1.25 billion per month for GPU access. OpenAI’s infrastructure costs are similarly significant.
Revenue has to outpace those costs — and stay ahead of falling prices — for the public market story to hold.
What This Means for the AI Industry
Public markets impose accountability that private funding does not. Once OpenAI and Anthropic are public companies, quarterly earnings calls will require them to justify spending, explain growth rates, and defend their moats against a Google that is actively competing on price.
The AI industry in late 2026 will look different from the AI industry today. Both IPOs will accelerate that change.
